2023 Oscar Predictions

There were a lot of good & even great movies in 2023 and some of them were nominated for Oscars. I am not as confident in some of my predictions as in past years, so it'll be interesting to see how I do this year. I do think a movie I pretty much hated (Everything Everywhere All at Once) is going to clean up though and that kind of pisses me off and a movie I love (Top Gun: Maverick) won't win nearly as many awards as it should...oh well. Here are my predictions for 17 of the 23 categories.

UPDATE: I went 12/17 with my predictions and am disappointed in this year's Best Picture winner. Oh well, hopefully Dune 2 sweeps everything in 2024. The winners are below in blue.

BEST PICTURE

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

What I want to/think should win: Of course, I think Top Gun: Maverick should win all of the awards it’s nominated for and thus want it to win Best Picture. But...

What I predict will win: This pains me, but I predict that Everything Everywhere All at Once is going to win...Ugh.

BEST DIRECTING

The Banshees of Inisherin — Martin McDonagh

Everything Everywhere All at Once — Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

The Fabelmans — Steven Spielberg

Tár — Todd Field

Triangle of Sadness — Ruben Östlund

Who I want to/think should win: Steven Spielberg

Who I predict will win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (ugh)

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Austin Butler in Elvis

Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser in The Whale

Paul Mescal in Aftersun

Bill Nighy in Living

Who I want to/think should win: Austin Butler (who is great as Elvis)

Who I predict will win: Brendan Fraser

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Cate Blanchett in Tár

Ana de Armas in Blonde

Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie

Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Who I want to/think should win and who I predict will win: Cate Blanchett (who carries Tár and why that movie is as good as it is)

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin

Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway

Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans

Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Who I want to/think should win: Brian Tyree Henry who is great in a really good movie

Who I predict will win: Ke Huy Quan

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau in The Whale

Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Who I want to/think should win: Kerry fecking Condon

Who I predict will win: Jamie Lee Curtis

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Babylon — Mary Zophres

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — Ruth Carter

Elvis — Catherine Martin

Everything Everywhere All at Once — Shirley Kurata

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris — Jenny Beavan

What I want to/think should win: Wakanda Forever

What I predict will win: Elvis

BEST SOUND

All Quiet on the Western Front — Viktor Prásil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte

Avatar: The Way of Water — Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges

The Batman — Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson

Elvis — David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller

Top Gun: Maverick — Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

What I want to/think should win and what I predict will win: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

All Quiet on the Western Front — Volker Bertelmann

Babylon — Justin Hurwitz

The Banshees of Inisherin — Carter Burwell

Everything Everywhere All at Once — Son Lux

The Fabelmans — John Williams

What I want to/think should win and what I predict will win: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

All Quiet on the Western Front — Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery — Written by Rian Johnson

Living — Written by Kazuo Ishiguro

Top Gun: Maverick — Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks

Women Talking — Screenplay by Sarah Polley

What I want to/think should win: Top Gun: Maverick

What I predict will win: Women Talking

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Banshees of Inisherin — Written by Martin McDonagh

Everything Everywhere All at Once — Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert

The Fabelmans — Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner

Tár — Written by Todd Field

Triangle of Sadness — Written by Ruben Östlund

What I want to/think should win: The Fabelmans

What I predict will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

All Quiet on the Western Front — Germany

Argentina, 1985 — Argentina

Close — Belgium

EO — Poland

The Quiet Girl — Ireland

What I want to/think should win and what I predict will win: This is a slam dunk...All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

All Quiet on the Western Front — Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová

The Batman — Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — Camille Friend and Joel Harlow

Elvis — Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti

The Whale — Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley

What I want to/think should win: All Quiet on the Western Front

What I predict will win: Elvis

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

All Quiet on the Western Front — Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper

Avatar: The Way of Water — Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole

Babylon — Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino

Elvis — Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn

The Fabelmans — Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara

What I want to/think should win: All Quiet on the Western Front

What I predict will win: Babylon

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

All Quiet on the Western Front — James Friend

Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths — Darius Khondji

Elvis — Mandy Walker

Empire of Light — Roger Deakins

Tár — Florian Hoffmeister

What I want to/think should win: Top Gun: Maverick...oh wait, it wasn’t nominated!

What I predict will win: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

All Quiet on the Western Front — Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar

Avatar: The Way of Water — Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett

The Batman — Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick

Top Gun: Maverick — Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher

What I want to/think should win: Real visual effects should always win this award...Top Gun: Maverick

What I predict will win: Avatar: The Way of Water

BEST FILM EDITING

The Banshees of Inisherin — Mikkel E.G. Nielsen

Elvis — Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond

Everything Everywhere All at Once — Paul Rogers

Tár — Monika Willi

Top Gun: Maverick — Eddie Hamilton

What I want to/think should win and what I predict will win: Top Gun: Maverick

Reviews & Ratings for the 2023 Oscar Best Picture Nominees

 

I have seen all of the Best Picture nominees and I liked most of them. But two of these movies I did not like, which is rare for me for the most recent Best Picture nominees. I’m puzzled as to why one of these is such a critical darling and why the other one was nominated at all. Here are my quick thoughts and ratings for each. They are in order of my most favorite to least favorite.

Top Gun: Maverick (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1745960)

I’ve seen Top Gun: Maverick three times already, including twice in a movie theater and I love this movie. I don’t think I can say anything that hasn’t already been said about this movie as it’s pretty awesome. The REAL (aka...NOT CGI) visual effects were incredible. It’s also a great story and better than the original Top Gun, which rarely happens with sequels. I would have loved to have seen this movie with my late brother Steve who was a huge Top Gun fan as we saw the original together in a theater with my other brother Brian when it came out in 1986. Top Gun: Maverick was the best movie I saw in 2022...9.5/10 stars.

The Fabelmans (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt14208870)

The Fabelmans is another movie that I actually saw twice in a movie theater. It’s a wonderful story about young Steven Spielberg (aka, Sammy Fabelman) growing up, loving & making movies, dealing with a turbulent family life, and putting up with anti-Semitism in school. I loved The Fabelmans...9.0/10 stars.

Avatar: The Way of Water (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1630029)

I walked out of Avatar: The Way of Water (which I watched in 3D) and said “Big Jim did it again!”. Like the first Avatar, this movie is a technical masterpiece and visually incredible. I also think it has a better story than the original along with better performances. I truly enjoyed this movie...9.0/10 stars.

The Banshees of Inisherin (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt11813216)

The Banshees of Inisherin is a really good fecking movie. The performances are fantastic and it’s got some very funny moments. The humor is a bit dark at times, but it’s enjoyable. The dramatic elements are truly dramatic as well and the mixture of humor & drama is spot on...8.5/10 stars.

Tár (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt14444726)

Tár is a very well-made movie with a great performance by Cate Blanchett at the center of it. It’s an unconventional look at how awful a person can be regardless of gender or political affiliation. When I walked out of it, I knew I liked it, but I didn’t know how much. After thinking about it and listening to a great “The Big Picture” podcast about it, I decided that I really liked it (especially the ending)...8.5/10 stars.

All Quiet on the Western Front (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1016150)

All Quiet on the Western Front is an intense & brutal war movie. As Americans, we don’t get to see war depicted from the enemy’s perspective and this movie shows that war sucked just as much for German soldiers as it did for the Allied soldiers. The production & sound design are both top notch too and I wish I’d have seen it in a movie theater instead of on Netflix...8.0/10 stars.

Women Talking (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13669038)

The title of Women Talking says it all as that’s exactly what this movie is. And while that may sound boring to some, it was quite compelling to me. Another movie that is carried by some tremendous performances, especially from Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, Jessie Buckley, and Ben Whishaw, essentially the only man in the movie. I definitely liked this movie...8.0/10 stars.

Elvis (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3704428)

I’ve said to a handful of people that once you get through what I call “The Baz Luhrmann bullshit”, Elvis is a pretty good movie. Austin Butler’s performance and a chance to listen to some awesome Elvis songs alone make it worth watching...7.5/10 stars.

Triangle of Sadness (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7322224)

All I am going to say about this movie is that it’s too long, too ridiculous, and flat out obnoxious. I really couldn’t wait for it to end...3.0/10 stars.

Everything Everywhere All at Once (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6710474)

I think it’s safe to say that I hated this movie. It’s a total farce and way too over the top. It does have a good cast and I was happy to see Ke Huy Quan in a movie again as I think the last movie I remember him in was The Goonies. This movie is a critical darling for some reason and my reaction to that is, in the immortal words of Josh Baskin in Big, “I don’t get it”. I’ll be pissed if this wins Best Picture...2.0/10 stars.